The Forecast Scorecard: Stop Being Wrong The Same Way Twice
A spreadsheet-only system for logging every forecast and what actually happened. Three numbers (hit rate, bias, worst miss) that change how you plan more than any tool you can buy.
Small-business data lessons — forecasting, inventory, calibration — from running a 200-order-a-week kitchen. Written for operators without a data team.
A spreadsheet-only system for logging every forecast and what actually happened. Three numbers (hit rate, bias, worst miss) that change how you plan more than any tool you can buy.
Why ARIMA and Prophet underperform your gut below a certain data volume. What actually worked: a quantile-regression baseline plus a weather-and-weekend correction.
Treating every par-level as a probabilistic forecast with an explicit service-level target cut our chicken-filling waste by ~18%. Math and a spreadsheet.
“We’ll do $40k next month” is a wish, not a plan. Three steps to calibrated ranges any owner can run in a spreadsheet.